On Saturday, a conflict that has been escalating for 10 months approached the brink of all-out war when a suspected Hezbollah missile struck a soccer field in Israel, claiming the lives of 12 children and teens.
The incident plunged Israel into mourning and signaled a significant escalation in the ongoing battle on its northern border. While Israel has indicated that its response will be measured, tensions are mounting towards a potential war that could result in widespread rocket fire on both Lebanon and Israel, including critical infrastructure targets like airports and power plants.
Hezbollah, which has a long history and last engaged in conflict with Israel in 2006, initiated missile attacks on Israel’s northern region following Hamas’ incursion on October 7. This led to retaliatory strikes from Israel, resulting in numerous casualties on both sides and the displacement of tens of thousands of individuals.
With both Israel and Hezbollah issuing warnings of catastrophic consequences if the skirmishes escalate into a full-scale war, the possibility of such a conflict is now at its highest.
“These children are our children; they are the children of us all,” expressed Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu at the scene of the attack in Majdal Shams. “The State of Israel will not, and cannot, ignore this. Our response will come and it will be severe.”
Here’s a breakdown of the conflict on Israel’s northern border and what may unfold next.
An Israeli tank in southern Lebanon in 1995. (Wikimedia Commons)
How did we get here?
Hezbollah and Israel have been engaged in sporadic conflicts for over four decades.
Hezbollah, a Shiite Islamist organization backed by Iran and designated as a terrorist group by several countries, emerged in response to Israel’s invasion of Lebanon in 1982.
Following the war, Israeli presence in southern Lebanon led to clashes with Hezbollah, including the bombing of a U.S. Marines barracks in 1983. Israel unilaterally withdrew from Lebanon in 2000, but hostilities with Hezbollah persisted, eventually erupting into a full-scale war in 2006. Hezbollah, committed to Israel’s destruction, has also carried out attacks on Israeli and Jewish targets globally, such as the AMIA Jewish center bombing in Buenos Aires in 1994.
Hezbollah also operates a political wing that wields significant influence in Lebanese politics, provides social services, and functions as a de facto state entity. While some entities classify Hezbollah’s military wing as a terrorist organization, its political arm is not universally recognized as such.
Smoke rises during an exchange of fire between the Israeli military and Hezbollah on the border between Israel and Lebanon on December 3, 2023. (Ayal Margolin/Flash90)
What has Hezbollah done since Oct. 7?
Following Hamas’ incursion, Hezbollah commenced firing missiles and projectiles across Israel’s northern border on October 8. Since then, the group has launched numerous attacks, including a significant missile barrage in May. These assaults have devastated Israeli border towns and forced the evacuation of tens of thousands of civilians. In response, Israel has targeted Hezbollah positions in southern Lebanon and Syria, resulting in casualties on both sides.
Hezbollah’s leader, Hassan Nasrallah, indicated that the attacks were meant to distract Israeli forces engaged with Hamas, diverting resources to the Lebanese front.
Israeli leaders have warned of potential widespread destruction in Lebanon if the attacks persist.
“If Hezbollah chooses to start an all-out war, it will by its own volition turn Beirut and southern Lebanon, not far from here, into Gaza and Khan Younis,” stated Netanyahu in December.
An image of the soccer field in Majdal Shams following the attack that killed 12 children and teens. (Daniel Hagari/X)
What happened on Saturday?
On Saturday evening, a missile originating from Lebanon hit a soccer field in Majdal Shams, claiming the lives of 12 individuals aged between 10 and 20.
While Hezbollah denied firing the missile, previous attacks in the region were attributed to the group. According to Israeli and U.S. intelligence sources, the missile was of Iranian origin and exclusively used by Hezbollah.
The funerals for most of the victims took place on Sunday, plunging Majdal Shams, a town with a population exceeding 10,000, into mourning. The Golan Heights, conquered by Israel in 1967 and later annexed, witnessed solidarity from Israelis grieving alongside the Druze population.
“The terrible and shocking disaster in the Druze village of Majdal Shams in the north of Israel is truly heartbreaking,” remarked Israeli President Isaac Herzog. “The State of Israel will firmly defend its citizens and its sovereignty.”
Thousands of demonstrators express support for Hezbollah in Beirut, Lebanon on Dec. 10, 2006. (Wikimedia Commons)
Have Hezbollah and Israel fought before?
The last major conflict between Israel and Hezbollah occurred in 2006, sparked by a cross-border raid resulting in the kidnapping of two Israeli soldiers by Hezbollah. The war claimed the lives of over 100 Israeli soldiers, hundreds of Hezbollah fighters, and numerous civilians on both sides.
Subsequently, the Syrian civil war erupted in 2011, leading Hezbollah forces to support Bashar al-Assad in Syria. Since then, Israel has conducted airstrikes on Hezbollah weapons convoys in Syria and Lebanon, often without formal acknowledgement.
Iranian commander-in-chief of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Hossein Salami, second from right, and Iran’s Chief of General Staff Major General Mohammad Bagheri, third from left, attend the graduation ceremony of Imam Hussein Military University in Tehran, Oct. 3, 2021. (Iranian Leader Press Office/Handout/Anadolu Agency via Getty Images)
Who is on Hezbollah’s side?
Hezbollah is predominantly viewed as an Iranian proxy, receiving funding and training from Iran and sharing ideological alignment and alliances.
Considered one of Israel’s most significant threats alongside Hamas, Hezbollah has framed its recent bombings as a display of solidarity with Hamas.
Following Israeli threats in response to the attack, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan even hinted at the possibility of invading Israel, a remarkable statement from a NATO member.
Israeli Foreign Minister Israel Katz tells reporters on the sidelines of hte Jerusalem Post conference on June
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