“We have reached a turning point,” Scheindlin said. “Even the right-wing supporters are saying that this can’t go on.”
Novik agreed. He said that the deaths of the hostages had “touched something very deep in the Israeli psyche.” And the fact that the Histadrut had called a strike showed a broad base of discontent.
“This is a very significant moment,” he said. “It’s not just the usual suspects. It’s a very broad coalition.”
Could the crisis alter election dynamics?
Netanyahu has been angling for a fourth consecutive term as prime minister, and his Likud party has been polling strongly, even leading the race in the most recent polls. But the crisis has changed the dynamics of the election season.
Scheindlin said that before the crisis, Netanyahu’s main rival, Yair Lapid of the centrist Yesh Atid party, had been gaining ground. But she said that the crisis could help Netanyahu by unifying his base and rallying his supporters to his side.
“For the last two months or so, there has been a shift in the polls,” she said. “But now, it’s very possible that this will be reversed.”
Novik said that the crisis had helped Netanyahu by shifting the focus away from his corruption trial, which had been a major issue in the campaign. He said that it also helped that Biden had given Netanyahu a vote of confidence, saying that the prime minister was doing “everything possible.”
“The crisis has changed the narrative,” Novik said. “It has put the campaign on hold.”
Talshir said that the crisis had exposed the weaknesses of both Netanyahu and Lapid. She said that both leaders had failed to provide a clear vision for Israel’s future, and that the crisis had exacerbated those failures.
“This crisis shows that both leaders are lacking,” she said. “It’s a crisis of leadership.”
What happens next?
With the country at a standstill, the question on many Israelis’ minds is: What happens next?
Scheindlin said that it was too early to tell. She said that Netanyahu was a master strategist, and that he had shown in the past his ability to navigate crises.
“Netanyahu is a survivor,” she said. “He knows how to turn a crisis into an opportunity.”
Novik said that the coming days would be crucial. He said that the pressure on Netanyahu would only increase, and that the prime minister would have to make some tough decisions.
“Netanyahu is facing the most difficult challenge of his political career,” Novik said. “He will have to choose between his own survival and the survival of the country.”
Talshir said that the crisis had revealed the deep divisions within Israeli society. She said that the country was at a crossroads, and that the decisions made in the coming days would shape its future.
“This crisis has shown us who we really are,” she said. “It’s up to us to decide what kind of country we want to be.”
Regenerate
Novik noted that the Histadrut is led by members of Netanyahu’s Likud Party, who have so far been reluctant to undermine him.
“The fact that over the last 12 hours, they changed their mind and removed their objection, may suggest that something more comprehensive is in store,” he said.
Talshir said the direct political consequences of the past two days would not be immediate because the Knesset is on a break until late October, after the High Holidays.
As pressure mounts, Yoav Gallant, the defense minister who reportedly argued fervently for accepting the latest deal last Thursday, and repeated that call on Sunday, might be able round up enough members of the coalition to threaten to walk out, Talshir said.
So far, far-right members of the coalition such as Bezalel Smotrich and Itamar Ben-Gvir have opposed a ceasefire, giving Netanyahu an incentive to hang tough. A politically moderate insurgency by Gallant could topple the government or at least get Netanyahu to change course.
“Who we have to watch is the more moderate security-oriented right wing in Israel, which is with the rest of the center and the left and all the families of the hostages out there in the streets,” she said.
But Eytan Gilboa, the director of the Center for International Communication at Bar-Ilan University, said he was already seeing hints that Netanyahu was not going to budge and was in fact doubling down, with attacks from Netanyahu backers saying the strikers were giving succor to Hamas boss Yahiyeh Sinwar, Israel’s foremost public enemy.
“The public relations machinery of Netanyahu is going to work,” Gilboa said. “He is producing talking points to his followers, and I’ve already seen some of them, they are accusing the demonstrators as well of helping Sinwar.”
How does the discovery of the hostages affect the war?
Erdan, the former ambassador, said Israel was not ready to end the war.
“It only strengthens our commitment to continue until we eradicate Hamas totally,” he told Fox. “We should win this war. We shouldn’t end this war. Ending this war now means that we allow Hamas to survive.”
Novik said that as long as the decision makers — Netanyahu and Sinwar — remained in place, there was little sign that anything would change tactically. Netanyahu wants to crush Hamas, and Sinwar is angling for his and his organization’s survival.
“It’s no longer secret that Israel’s security establishment are convinced that even if it were possible to square the circle with some compromise on the Philadelphi route,” the strip of land on the Egypt-Gaza border that Netanyahu is insisting the Israeli military control, Netanyahu “would come up with a new change in the formula,” he said.
A game-changer could be the departure of Gallant, rather than Netanyahu, though what that might portend is not certain, said Gilboa. Gallant has focused his attention on the crisis on the northern border in recent weeks and has argued for shifting resources from Gaza.
Netanyahu has resisted firing Gallant, Gilboa said, wary of the protests that ensued the last time he tried to do so, when the two men broke publicly over the 2023 judicial crisis.
“Now the demonstrations are taking place anyway, Netanyahu might just do it,” Gilboa said about firing Gallant. “He might think this is an opportunity for him, but it might be a greater problem to deal with. If he replaces the minister of defense, I think it’s going to inject more energy into the demonstrations.”
How does this affect the U.S.-Israel relationship?
Erdan said the discovery of the bodies should ease Biden administration pressure on Israel to take a deal.
“The international community, including the American administration, applied more and more pressure on Israel to agree to a ceasefire,” he told Fox. “This is the time for the international community, for the administration in America to understand that no more pressure should be applied on Israel. We should encourage the Israeli government to continue to increase the pressure on Hamas.”
Biden said he was more dedicated than ever to bringing about a deal. “We will keep working around the clock for a deal to secure the release of the remaining hostages,” he said in a statement.
Novik said he did not expect Biden to substantially pressure Israel while his vice president, Kamala Harris, is in a close race for the presidency with Republican nominee Donald Trump.
“When he has to balance the needs of the Harris campaign with the U.S. national security interests at this moment, it’s not an easy balance, right?” Novik said. “So things that he might be able to do on Nov. 6 are not as easy to do today.”
Still, Novik said that Biden could leverage Israeli outrage to make clear that Netanyahu was as responsible as Hamas, if not more so, for frustrating a deal. He recommended, “Tell the Israeli public the truth, ‘Your prime minister is playing games with the terms of the deal.’”
Talshir said Netanyahu was likely watching the U.S. election as well and would not make any strategic decisions until after the vote on Nov. 5.
“Netanyahu will try to drag it on until the election in the U.S., because he will have different tactics should Harris be elected or Trump,” she said.
Dragging the war out that long could backfire, she said. “I don’t think that it’s going to work for him,” she said. If he maintains the status quo that long, she predicted, “I think the Israeli government is going to collapse.”
Regenerate means to restore or renew something to a better or more vigorous state. It can refer to physical healing or growth, as well as the renewal or revival of something that has been damaged or lost.
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