Overall, the assassination of Ismail Haniyeh has major implications for the region, with potential consequences for Hamas, Hezbollah, and Iran. The situation remains volatile, and the coming days and weeks will be crucial in determining how the various actors respond to these developments. The possibility of further escalation and retaliation looms large, and the international community will be closely watching to see how events unfold.
The United States led an international coalition in supporting Israel in defending against a large number of missiles launched by Iran at Israel in April.
Michael Koplow, the Chief Policy Officer of the Israel Policy Forum, stated that targeting Haniyeh was a logical move, although it may have jeopardized the possibility of an immediate release of the hostages.
“If you have the chance to eliminate the leader of Hamas, you take it, even with the increased risk of carrying it out in Tehran,” he said. “The mistake here wasn’t killing Haniyeh, but rather missing past opportunities for a hostage deal, which now becomes even more unlikely.”
Ghaith al-Omari, a Senior Fellow at the Washington Institute and former advisor to the Palestinian peace negotiating team, mentioned that Hamas might withdraw from negotiations for a ceasefire regarding the hostages, but could return to the table later.
“Hamas will likely need to step back from the hostage talks in the short term, although this could be more symbolic in nature at the end of the day,” he stated during a virtual press conference. He noted that while Haniyeh was the main negotiator, Yahyeh Sinwar, the Hamas military chief, who is still alive and hidden in Gaza, ultimately holds the power.
“Sinwar, the one who truly matters, hasn’t changed his calculations, and once things settle down, they will likely find a way to resume talks quietly,” he added.
The Biden administration declined to comment on the assassination of Haniyeh, but John Kirby, the spokesperson for the National Security Council, emphasized that the ongoing violence in the Middle East complicates the administration’s efforts to secure a ceasefire for a hostage exchange.
“When you have significant and violent events caused by various actors, it certainly doesn’t make the task of achieving that goal any easier,” Kirby remarked.